Forest operations,tree species composition and decline in rainfall explain runoff changes in the Nacimiento experimental catchments,south central Chile

Few long-term studies have explored how intensively managed short rotation forest plantations interact with climate variability. We examine how prolonged severe drought and forest operations affect runoff in 11 experimental catchments on private corporate forest land near Nacimiento in south central Chile over the period 2008–2019. The catchments (7.7–414 ha) contain forest plantations of exotic fast-growing species (Pinus radiata, Eucalyptus spp.) at various stages of growth in a Mediterranean climate (mean long-term annual rainfall = 1381 mm). Since 2010, a drought, unprecedented in recent history, has reduced rainfall at Nacimiento by 20%, relative to the long-term mean. Pre-drought runoff ratios were <0.2 under 8-year-old Eucalyptus; >0.4 under 21-year-old Radiata pine and >0.8 where herbicide treatments had controlled vegetation for 2 years in 38% of the catchment area. Early in the study period, clearcutting of Radiata pine (85%–95% of catchment area) increased streamflow by 150 mm as compared with the year before harvest, while clearcutting and partial cuts of Eucalyptus did not increase streamflow. During 2008–2019, the combination of emerging drought and forestry treatments (replanting with Eucalyptus after clearcutting of Radiata pine and Eucalyptus) reduced streamflow by 400–500 mm, and regeneration of previously herbicide-treated vegetation combined with growth of Eucalyptus plantations reduced streamflow by 1125 mm (87% of mean annual precipitation 2010–2019). These results from one of the most comprehensive forest catchment studies in the world on private industrial forest land indicate that multiple decades of forest management have reduced deep soil moisture reservoirs. This effect has been exacerbated by drought and conversion from Radiata pine to Eucalyptus, apparently largely eliminating subsurface supply to streamflow. The findings reveal tradeoffs between wood production and water supply, provide lessons for adapting forest management to the projected future drier climate in Chile, and underscore the need for continued experimental work in managed forest plantations.     

基于高斯两步移动搜寻法的村镇避难场所可达性研究

避难场所可达性是指避难场所与受灾居民之间的通达性,即灾害发生时,避难人员通过避难疏散通道到达避难场所的难易程度,是评价避难场所布局合理性的重要指标。本研究结合高斯两步移动搜寻法和网络分析法,从供需双向出发对村镇地区避难场所进行可达性分析。2种方法的结合,既充分考虑了需求点与设施点的相互作用,又充分考虑了设施点的吸引力随距离的衰减关系,并基于实际道路,以步行疏散时间作为搜索半径,降低了传统研究中因忽略供需间相互作用及实际距离而引起的可达性结果的误差。最后,以神农架松柏镇区为例,验证该方法的实际应用价值。结果表明,该方法能够有效测定村镇地区避难场所的空间可达性,同时,基于GIS软件可以直观地揭示研究区域内避难场所可达性空间分布差异。该方法可为制定科学的村镇防灾减灾规划提供方法支持。     

中国省域尺度17部门资本存量的时空特征分析

随着灾害强度、频率以及承灾体暴露的增加,自然灾害造成的损失日益严重。资本存量作为承灾体的经济暴露指标之一,是灾害损失评估的前提和基础。针对目前中国缺乏省域尺度长时间序列的经济部门分类的资本存量数据基础,论文通过永续盘存法,建立了2003—2015年中国大陆31省17部门的资本存量数据库,并分析其时空特征。结果显示：① 全国总资本存量与灾害直接损失的年际变化均呈增加趋势。省域尺度上,通过相关性分析显示,在99%置信度水平上,两者呈显著正相关(r=0.3)。② 时间上,各省17部门资本存量基本也呈增加趋势,但增速不同。在各部门增速最快的省份中,黑龙江省的居民服务、修理和其他服务业增速最快,增长约454.3倍;其次是青海省的租赁和商务服务业(398.3倍)、江苏省的金融业(295.1倍)、安徽省的科学研究和技术服务业(125.1倍)等。③ 空间上,2015年各省17部门资本存量最多的前4个部门分别是房地产业,工业,交通运输、仓储和邮政业,水利、环境和公共设施管理业,占比均在60%以上;且这4个部门资本存量暴露最多的省份是江苏省和广东省。该结果有助于从时空角度了解各省各部门资本存量暴露情况,为各省灾害风险管理者的防灾减灾工作提供重要的参考价值。     

基于SPEI的渭河流域干旱时空变化特征分析

以标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI）作为评估指标，基于渭河流域28个气象站点1961—2017年实测降水量和气温数据，采用Mann-Kendall（M-K）趋势检验、经验正交函数以及小波变换等方法分析渭河流域干旱时空变化特征，并研究渭河流域干旱与6种大尺度气候因子之间的相关关系，进一步探讨主要气候因子对流域干旱时空分布特征的潜在影响。研究表明：渭河流域在1961—2017年间整体呈现出变旱的趋势。通过经验正交函数分解，渭河流域干旱分布场主要有3种典型模态类型，分别为全局型、西北—东南反向分布型以及东—西反向分布型；同时，大尺度气候因子南方涛动指数SOI与流域干旱分布场具有更好的相关关系，对该区域内干旱变化有较强的影响。     

滨海城市竖向避难场所选址可靠性评价与若干问题探讨

关注滨海城市竖向避难场所的选址可靠性问题，首先深化确立“竖向避难场所”概念；然后构建竖向避难场所选址可靠性评价模型，综合自然地理要素和建成环境要素，从与灾害直接作用相关的选址暴露性、与应急交通相关的选址敏感性、与应急服务相关的选址适应性3个维度展开，搭建3级评价指标体系；再以天津滨海新区为例、聚焦滨海城市潮洪灾害和人口安全矛盾的集核——临港城区展开实证研究，借助ArcGIS分类与可视化发现：高低可靠性选址之间具有明显的空间分异，可以分解为灾害暴露性的“近岸高?远岸低”分异、交通敏感性的“外围高?中心低”分异、服务适应性的“中心与沿河高?外围低”兼“近港高?远港低”分异。同时发现：商业设施用地选址价值较高，在高可靠性选址中占比第一；中小学和社会福利设施用地选址价值最高，在高可靠性选址中占比第二；文化科研和娱乐康体设施用地在高可靠性选址中占比最小。针对临港城区实证研究结果，提出滨海城市竖向避难场所选址及可靠性提升对策。     

西南矿区山体崩塌成因机制分析及防治对策

西南地区的矿区具有相似的地理、地质环境,通过四川芙蓉煤矿白岩崩塌的典型实例,对西南矿区山体崩塌的成灾环境进行调查研究,揭示了西南矿区山体崩塌的成因机制,并简要提出了对该煤矿开发与综合治理建议,指出了加强防治工作的紧迫性,强调开展系统工程防灾的重要性,并为该煤矿解决正常采掘接替及工作面的布置问题作出了科学的指导.     

西宁盆地泥石流类型及其防治意见

概略地叙述了西宁地区的泥石流形成条件和形成机理,并将西宁地区泥石流划分为稀性泥石流类及泥石质泥石流种类。在此基础上提出防治泥石流灾害的意见。     

DISASTER ANALYSIS AND COUNTERMEASURES OF LAND SUBSIDENCE CAUSED BY COAL CUTTING IN CHINA

In recent years, many coal-producing countries have paid great attention to the land subsidence causedby coal cutting. In China, because of the dense population in coalfield areas, the land subsidence hazard is more seri-ous. After a brief analysis on the mechanism of land subsidence, this paper gives a comprehensive and systematical ac-count on all kinds of hazards caused by the land subsidence in China. The study shows that land subsidence has endan-gered land, buildings, traffic and communication lines, dykes and dams. It also causes damage to ecological and socialenvironment. In order to lessen the hazard of land subsidence, preventive measures should be taken to reduce the col-lapse amount, such as extraction with stowing, banded mining system, succession and coordination mining system, orhigh-pressure mudflow between rock strata. Measures of reinforcing or moving certain buildings should also be taken toreduce the destructive degree. In order to harness the subsidence land and bring them under control for fanning, mea-sures should be taken such as filling with spoil or fine breeze, excavating the deeper and covering the shallower land.     

APPLICATION OF MAP AND FILE INFORMATIONVISUALIZATION SYSTEM TO COMPREHENSIVEDIVISION OF NATURAL DISASTERS- Takingthe ChangjiangValleg as an Example

In recent years，scholars at home and abroad have method，and that vanous disasters would be analyzed assynthetically studied natural dlsaste‘theoretically and an Integral．SHI Peilun（1991）putforwad a scientificmethodologlcally，as well as its cases analys。s（CND，term—regional disaster system，which Indicates that1987； MA et al，1990； MARBLE，1990； NE et al，the situation of a disaster（calamity loss）results from1999； PATAK et al，1982； SHI，1991；VAN et al，h…     

四川汶川MS 8.0大地震地表破裂带的遥感影像解析

2008年5月12日发生于四川盆地西部龙门山断裂带的汶川MS 8.0级大地震造成巨大的人员伤亡和财产损失,并形成了空间上基本连续分布的地表破裂带（地震断层）。根据地表破裂带的解译标志及影像特征,我们充分利用震后中国科学院航空遥感飞机所获取的高分辨率航空遥感图像以及我国台湾福卫-2卫星遥感图像进行详细解译分析,并结合震后的多次野外科学考察与验证,初步查明了四川汶川MS 8.0级大地震所产生地表破裂带的空间分布特征。遥感解译分析表明汶川大地震产生的地表破裂带总计长约300 km,其几何学特征十分复杂,主要沿先存的NE走向活动断裂带呈不连续展布;变形特征以逆冲挤压为主兼具右旋走滑分量。按同震地表破裂带所在断裂带位置,可将其分为两条： 中央地表破裂带：沿映秀-北川断裂带分布,从西南开始呈北东向延伸至平武县水观乡石坎子北东一带,长约230 km,最大垂直位移量达6.0 m左右,最大右旋水平位移达5.8 m;山前地表破裂带：沿灌县-安县断裂带分布,由都江堰市向峨乡一带开始呈北东向延伸至安县雎水镇一带,长约70 km,以逆冲挤压为主,最大垂直位移量可达2.5 m。此外,遥感图像分析还表明上述地表破裂带与地质灾害分布在空间上具有十分密切的相关性,因此,挤压逆冲-走滑型地震断层的致灾效应研究是未来应该加以重视的研究课题。